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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.