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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.