Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.