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The direst possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been outlined by experts, encompassing a blistering 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 2-metre rise in sea levels. Another scenario foresees a decline of 6C in temperature following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy demand.

Possible Events, Not Predictions

These impacts, a number of which are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as low probability but credible. The team explained that these projections plugged a hole in forecasting that had rendered the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are possible," stated the professor who led the research. "Britain has been formulating policy lacking the methods to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now supplied decision-makers what they need to plan for environmental results they hope never happen, but dare not dismiss."

A Suite of Extreme Weather Projections

A further series of severe models maps the projected severity of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These show that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be 300% of standard measurements.

The probability of the worst-case outcomes happening remains uncertain due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to combat climate change and how the planet's climate will react. This research was compared to defence planning or stress tests for the banking sector.

Critical Scenario Details

• Severe Heating: Global temperatures soaring past 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation collapses or if vicious cycles such as the tropical forests perishing release its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heatwaves and dry spells plaguing the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is weakening and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water resources would be fundamentally reshaped," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica disintegrate quickly, inundating low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This paradoxical outcome occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity block sunlight from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Worst

These dire projections could be used to inform the development of major projects, for example new towns, power generation facilities and water management networks. Awareness of these future hazards could also speed the push to cut carbon pollution.

The research created the extreme models using a combination of observed and historical experience, climate models and established principles. The scenarios exclude potential global problems like the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

The research was requested as part of a national risk assessment framework. Earlier reports have cautioned that not enough attention was being given to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the dangers for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "insufficient" by some observers.

A government spokesperson noted: "Climate change is at the center of our national priorities, both adapting for the future and establishing itself as a low-carbon economy. It is vital that the UK is ready for the effects."