From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”