Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
